ADRS: Applied Development Research Solutions

This is what President Ramaphosa should have said in his Opinionista column

On the 18 December 2019, President Cyril Ramaphosa wrote about ‘A new era in energy generation’ in an op-ed in the Daily Maverick.

No doubt this came as a result of major pressure from all corners after rolling blackouts and the first-ever Stage 6-level energy disruption affected the entire country’s productivity and ability to cater to a busy tourist season. It was - only now, some would say - deemed a crisis.

And crises, as we know, are usually indicative of a larger problem. In this case, it points to a struggling economy as a whole, with the energy crisis merely a tributary to this delta.

So while measures are needed to address the energy problem, the primary solutions extend beyond just this. We need to understand the machinery that makes the economy work to get the full picture to diagnose and treat the problems. This means understanding that the economy is made up of multiple sectors and parts that interact and feedback simultaneously. It is a complex machine and it would be short-sighted to try and deal with issues in isolation.

So, our client, economist Dr Asghar Adelzadeh and former Statistician General, Dr Pali Lehohla, imagined a similar piece to Ramaphosa’s energy op-ed, but this time, focused on the policy levers that need to be pulled to reboot the machine that is the South African economy.

Their piece, drafted in Ramaphosa’s voice, sets out a practical, workable, sustainable, economically sound policy framework to guide the economic revitalization of the country.

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If Treasury does what it says it will do, will SA really be better off?

The proposed austerity programme could cut 0.16 of a percentage point from average annual growth and raise average unemployment 2.2 percentage points over the next decade. Our Chief Economic Modeller, Dr Adelzadeh, provided commentary through this article.

Are the economic proposals from minister Mboweni compelling?

Eusebius facilitated a discussion about the substance of the latest economic proposals from Treasury with Dr Asghar Adelzadeh.

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Mboweni to meet ANC Top 6 over his recovery plan

This discussion pre-empted Finance minister Tito Mboweni’s meeting with top ANC officials to formally discuss his proposed economic plan to address the country’s economic crises. To unpack Mboweni’s move Karima was joined by the ANC's head of economic transformation, Enoch Godongwana, COSATU’s Tony Ehrenreich, Economist Lumkile Mondi from Wits Business School & Dr Asgar Adelzadeh chief modeller at Applied Development Research.

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Bold new thinking needed to achieve NDP goals

The state’s austerity-driven economic policy is bound to fail, while the Nayi le Walk policy roadmap adopts a growth-orientated approach and has more chance of boosting the economy, argues ADRS Global’s chief economic modeller, Dr. Asghar Adelzadeh in a Business Day opinion piece.

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SA’s economic outlook

Following on from the SONA speech (June 2019), which was somewhat lacking a defined roadmap moving forward, Dr Adelzadeh illustrated it as an opportune time to investigate forecasting as a means of creating effective policy design for a number of reasons.

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What economic modelling can tell us about SA’s future

The economic modelling tools that ADRS have developed translate into sound and stable economic forecasting. Dr Adelzadeh talks to how -- and why -- this not only works, but is a must for the South African government in order to achieve the growth rates needed. He also outlines why the current approach (short term policies) will never be able to satisfy long term goals.

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The State of the Nation

The South African government’s commitment to austerity has not yielded the intended results. If we continue down this path, mapped out in a ‘business as usual scenario’, it’s likely our future performance will resemble our past. A shift from ‘austerity’ to a ‘growth’ focused approach to fiscal and monetary policy, is a more feasible path to greater growth. Dr. Asghar Adelzadeh, chief economic modeller at ADRS Global, outlines several ways this can be done using policy levers to develop a robust approach to reaching targets.

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Economic forecasting important for South Africa’s economic outlook.

With February 2019 delivering both the Budget Speech and the SONA address, all focus was on SA’s economic outlook. As an expert in economic forecasting, Dr. Adelzadeh was able to detail what the country can expect in the short and long term. More importantly, he was able to address how forecasting can be used to intelligently inform effective policy reform to help the country reach its desired economic, development and poverty eradication goals.

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Economic modelling

In October 2018, the South African Investment Conference aimed to secure USD$100 billion in domestic and foreign direct investment for the country to bootstrap an economy that is struggling to find the magic growth formulae. The Finance Minister also released a mini-budget hinged on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s plans for economic intervention to shift the poor growth rate upwards. But how does South Africa practically attain the envisaged 3% growth rate? What factors and policy interventions are required? What does that growth look like across different sectors, skills sets, income brackets? These are the core question economic forecasting and modelling agents often ask when running economic simulations to map out the pathways for such scenarios.

Listen to interview here